According to a recent report by the Financial Times website, a new report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) pointed out that in developed economies, the risk of workers being replaced by robots is much lower than people's previous imagination. Only 14 in OECD countries. Jobs around % are "highly automated." This conclusion is comparable to the estimates given by Carl Frey and Michael Osborne of the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom. These two experts pointed out that they found that 47% of US jobs exist. Computerized risk.
The report emphasizes that despite this, the future of low-skilled workers is still in jeopardy, and countries should vigorously strengthen adult education to cope with and mitigate risks.
Professor Zhang Junping, deputy director of the China Intelligent Society's Hybrid Intelligence Expert Committee and Professor Zhang Junping from the School of Computer Science of Fudan University, said: "In the face of artificial intelligence, we don't have to worry too much, but we need to be properly prepared, especially for the weak educational background. People suggest that the government train them in terms of technical skills or service skills."
Machine lacks creativity
In recent years, artificial intelligence and robotics have advanced by leaps and bounds, which has caused policy makers and economists to worry that as machines continue to replace workers, there may be “disastrous scenes†of large-scale unemployment of workers; in addition, ordinary people are worried and afraid of being whistling. The artificial intelligence "train" that came out was far behind.
But the OECD's new report argues that most jobs are difficult to automate because they require practitioners to have the ability to effectively negotiate and coordinate complex social relationships, creativity and complex reasoning, or to actually do so in an unorganized work environment. The ability of the task. Compared with people, it is more difficult for the machine to do all this.
Zhang Junping also pointed out: "Compared with people, the weakness of the machine is also very obvious. For the work that cannot be programmed, depends on the qualitative evaluation criteria and the need to rely on common sense intelligence, the machine is currently unable to replace humans, such as taking care of the elderly and patients. Etc. These jobs depend on people's life experiences and emotions, which are lacking in machines."
Stefano Scarletta, director of employment, labor and social affairs at the OECD, said that even in the same job, working in different environments may require different skills, so the chances of being replaced by robots are not the same. For example, he said that there is no big difference between a car mechanic working on a production line in a large factory and a car mechanic working in an independent car repair shop, even though the robot’s triumphant progress, the latter’s work Some aspects may change, but it is difficult to achieve full automation.
The labor market will be polarized
Scarletta explained that the report shows that people's concerns about "large-scale technical unemployment" have been exaggerated to some extent. Instead, the risk lies in “further polarization of the labor marketâ€: one is a high-paying worker; the other is someone who may be “relatively low-paid and boringâ€.
He said: "Automated risk is highly concentrated in low-skilled people, and some people may fall further in the skill grading system. As described by the Matthew effect: the strong is strong, the weak is weaker."
According to the manufacturer, the report found that jobs in English-speaking countries, Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands are the least likely to be automated; jobs in Germany, Japan, Southern Europe and Eastern Europe are the most risky to be replaced by robots. The report explains that the main reason for the differences between these economies is not because of the larger size of manufacturing in some economies, but because people here are already doing these things in different ways.
The researchers wrote: "In these different economies, even in the same profession, the frequency of perception and manipulation tasks and cognitive and social functions tasks are not the same. Moreover, some countries have adopted labor-saving techniques and Jobs have been adjusted."
Strengthen adult training to resolve risks
Although the proportion of jobs facing the risk of being replaced is much lower than the previously published estimates, this does not mean that people can sit back and relax. The truth is that many people will still be affected. According to the report, of the 32 countries participating in the study, approximately 66 million people may be affected, and some of them will have difficulty receiving training.
The study says that in the United States alone, 13 million jobs may be lost. The study pointed out: "Because lost jobs are unlikely to be evenly distributed across the country, the impact will be several times greater than the destruction of the local economy in the Detroit auto industry recession in the 1950s. At that time, technological changes and automation Increasing factors have caused massive unemployment in Detroit."
The study emphasizes that in the face of the impact of automation, those with the lowest requirements for educational experience may face the greatest risks, especially in the fields of food preparation, cleaning and other fields, as well as manual workers in the mining, construction and manufacturing sectors.
The report said: "At the same time, most workers' work may change dramatically due to automation, which requires countries to strengthen adult learning policies in order to prepare their workforce in the face of possible work changes."
Zhang Junping also suggested: "People who are engaged in repetitive work and have a weak educational background need to raise their risk awareness and plan ahead. It is best to learn more to avoid being replaced by machines. Of course, the government should also consider these people in technical ability or Intensify training in service skills to keep up with the pace of the upcoming era of artificial intelligence."
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