According to the latest report from the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI), the global semiconductor output value will exceed the $400 billion mark for the first time in 2017, and it will still be an optimistic growth year in 2018. It is estimated that the semiconductor output value will grow by 4%-8%. And the output value in 2019 will be expected to challenge the 500 billion US dollars mark.
According to Zeng Ruijun, senior manager of industry research at SEMI Taiwan, 2017 is a record year for global semiconductor output. The annual growth rate is 20%. The main reason is the strong growth of memory. Among them, the DRAM output value grows by 75% year-on-year, and the storage flash memory output value. (NANDFlash) grows 45% annually, and other IC production values ​​grow 9% annually.
Samsung, Hynix, and Micron to expand production, DRAM capacity growth challenge this year by 10%
DRAM and NANDFlash are two important drivers of the global semiconductor industry booming in these two years. Especially in 2017, the global semiconductor output exceeded 400 billion U.S. dollars, which was attributed to the DRAM price increase. According to estimates by SEMI, under Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's continued expansion of DRAM production capacity, DRAM supply capacity in 2018 may grow by 10%. This will be a larger growth, but terminal demand is also catching up. It is estimated that by 2021, the DRAM year The growth rate is 30%.
Observe the three major camps in the global DRAM industry: Samsung, Hynix, and Micron. Among them, Samsung and SK Hynix have accelerated the pace of expansion in their Korean production, including Samsung’s P1 plant and Line 15 production line in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, and SK Hynix's M14 production line; In addition, Micron's Fab15 and Fab16 in Hiroshima also have DRAM expansion plans, but the main force of the current expansion is still in the Korean two major manufacturers.
In addition to the expansion of DRAM industry, there are currently plans for expansion of the NAND industry, including the Samsung Pyeongtaek Plant, the M14 line of SK Hynix, Micron Lehi and Singapore Fab10X, Toshiba Fab2/Fab6, and the Intel Dalian Plant (Fab68). .
SEMI estimates that the DRAM plant equipment expenditure in 2017 will be approximately US$13 billion, which has doubled compared to 2016 and is expected to continue to grow to US$14 billion by 2018. In 2017, NAND industry equipment expenditure will be approximately US$19 billion, which is 10 billion yuan more than 2016 The U.S. dollar has a leap-forward growth, and it is expected that the expenditure on NAND equipment in 2018 will be 20 billion U.S. dollars.
In fact, both the DRAM and NAND camps are full of confidence in the expansion of production capacity, but don't ignore it. Under the drive of IoT, AI, automotive electronics, and consumer electronics, the demand side is also showing a development trend. The main sources of growth for semiconductors in 2017 were DRAM, NAND, sensors, optoelectronics, and discrete components. It is expected that these applications will continue to drive industry growth this year. In addition, demand for applications such as wireless, automotive, and consumer electronics will also grow.
The “three highs†in the semiconductor industry are in an arduous situation, and localization advantages gradually emerge
In 2017, when the global semiconductor output exceeded the 4,000 US dollar mark, 3D NAND manufacturers, DRAM manufacturers, and foundry manufacturers all expanded their production and seized the market, which also stimulated a huge opportunity for semiconductor equipment materials industry. In 2018, the entire global semiconductor industry will be unprecedentedly prosperous.
"The six 3D NAND factories, three major DRAM camps, and the expansion of cross-strait wafer foundries have led to an investment of 57 billion U.S. dollars in fab equipment investment in 2017, setting a record high in history." SEMI Semiconductor Industry Association predicts 2018 crystals The round-plant equipment investment-related expenditure will reach US$63 billion, which will once again reach its peak!
In addition to the high innovation in global semiconductor output value and semiconductor equipment investment, silicon wafer shipments also saw a new high in 2017. This is the “three highs†of the semiconductor industry in 2017, which are high value-added sales, high innovation in equipment expenditure, and high sales of silicon wafers.
Looking at the current status of 3D NAND, DRAM, and foundry expansion, the 3D NAND industry plans to expand production at Samsung Pyeongtaek, SK Hynix's M14 line, Micron Lehi and Singapore Fab10X, Toshiba Fab2/Fab6. , and Intel's Dalian plant (Fab68); in the DRAM industry, Samsung Pyeongtaek P1 plant and Line15 production line, SK Hynix M14 production line, Micron's Fab15 and Fab16.
According to SEMI statistics, the growth rate of DRAM capacity in 2018 is 10%; 3DNAND capacity growth rate is as high as 48%; wafer foundry is 5%.
In the foundry industry, there are 12-inch plant expansion plans include TSMC's Fab12/14/15 fabs sprinting at 7nm and 5nm; Samsung's S2 and S3; GlobalFoundries Fab1/8/11; SMIC's Beijing B2, Shanghai New Plant, Shenzhen New Plant, UMC's Fab12AP5 and Xiamen Plant.
The biggest beneficiaries of this construction boom are semi-conductor equipment manufacturers, especially the 3D NAND industry and the use of etching machines in the 20-nanometer process technology, followed by CVD machines, and the related equipment traders will be the first to benefit.
In terms of equipment spending around the world, South Korea benefited from Samsung and SK Hynix to expand DRAM production capacity in 2017. South Korea replaced it with US$18 billion as the world’s largest spending market, followed by Taiwan’s 12.6 billion US dollars; SEMI expects that South Korea will continue to be ranked first with US$16.9 billion in 2018, while China may replace Taiwan and become the world’s second largest equipment spending market.
It is also worth noting that the stamina of China's semiconductor equipment materials spending will gradually emerge in 2018. Since the Chinese mainland will benefit from many of the fabs completed last year that are expected to enter the equipment-installation phase in 2018, the amount of expenditure in China will grow significantly. However, unlike the past, in the past most of the mainland fab investment came from outside vendors. In 2018, the mainland's local fab equipment spending will catch up with the foreign manufacturers for the first time, including Changjiang Storage, Fujian Jinhua, and Hua Liwei. Many new entrants, such as Electronics and Hefei Changxin, plan to invest in and set up factories in China, and they will build their own. The industrial structure will gradually change.
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