[Opportunities and Challenges of the Global 8-inch Wafer Market under Strong Core Background] The continuing demand for high-quality chips has caused a serious shortage of 200mm (8-inch) wafer fab capacity and equipment, and there has been no sign of any slowdown.
Nowadays, the 200mm fab has a tight production capacity. It is expected that the situation will be the same in the second half of 2018. This kind of capacity shortage may continue until 2019. In fact, 2018 may already be the third year in a row. Of course, this is also true for 200mm devices.
2017~2023 Beyond Moore Field Wafer Demand (Equivalent 200mm Wafers)
Although strong demand appears to be bright for the industry, this situation is bringing many anxiety to many customers. The 200mm market does not involve cutting-edge chips produced by 300mm fabs, but it includes a large number of devices fabricated at mature nodes in older 200mm fabs, including consumer devices, communications ICs, and sensors.
On the 200mm wafer end, the market dynamics are complex, mainly reflected in:
- IDM and fabless design companies hope to meet the chip manufacturing needs of the 200mm fab. However, it is unclear whether suppliers can meet all the requirements, because global 200mm wafer fab capacity will remain tense now and in the future.
- In response, GlobalFoundries, Samsung, SMIC, TowerJazz, TSMC, UMC, and other vendors are competing to increase or seek new 200mm wafers Manufacturing capacity. At the same time, the new foundry - SkyWaterTechnology has joined the 200mm competition.
- Even with the 200mm capacity available, the industry is still facing a dilemma because it cannot find enough suitable 200mm wafer equipment in the market.
- As a result, due to the inability to obtain sufficient 200mm capacity or equipment, some chip makers had to rethink their plans to build a new 200mm fab. Instead, they could build a 300mm fab.
For all parties in the industry, this is a complicated and worrying situation. “We all saw that 200mm orders were in short supply, and it was not easy to seek any additional production capacity,†said Walter Ng, UMC’s vice president of business management. “The periodical rules of the past, and the early completion of the 200mm production capacity, have gradually become the norm. We and other manufacturers in the industry believe that this status quo will be maintained in the foreseeable future. This is not the case in UMC, which is the case in all industries."
Surprisingly, the 200mm wafer fab will be operating at least until around 2030. As before, the challenge lies in the purchase of 200mm equipment, which is still in a state of supply shortage.
In fact, the market's strong demand for 200mm devices has been going on for some time, although market demand seems to have eased slightly in the second half of 2018 as chipmakers began to weigh their 200mm fab plans. In addition, geopolitical issues are also one of the influencing factors. "The 200mm capacity continues to be tight," said Joanne Itow, general manager of manufacturing at SemicoResearch. "Interestingly, the demand for 200mm used equipment has somewhat diminished."
200mm fab hot
The IC market can be divided into multiple market segments. At the leading edge, chip makers are increasing their mass production at the 16-nm/14-nm and lower nodes of the 300-mm fab. Of course, in the 300mm fab, chip makers also make chips at 16nm/14nm and above.
The production capacity of all 300mm process nodes is continuously expanding. "In addition to the increase in the production capacity of logic chips for foundries, China and South Korea have significantly increased 300mm wafer capacity in memory devices," said Adrienne Downey, an analyst at SemicoResearch.
But not all chips require advanced process nodes. Most analog products, MEMS, RF devices and other products are produced in wafer fabs with dimensions of 200mm and below. For many of these devices, the 200mm wafer is the best choice.
The first 200mm wafer fab appeared in 1990, and the 200mm wafer size gradually became the industry standard for many years. Over time, chip makers began to migrate to more advanced 300mm fabs in the 2000s, and the market's demand for 200mm wafers began to shrink. By 2007, demand for 200mm wafers peaked and the market began to decline.
Relative wafer size differences
Despite this, at the end of 2015, the industry unexpectedly demanded 200mm wafer fabs. This made the supply chain of the IC overwhelmed, leading to a capacity shortage in the 200mm wafer fabs in 2016 and 2017. In 2018, 200mm wafer production capacity is still tight, and it seems impossible to predict when it will be able to ease.
Despite this, the demand for 200mm wafers has caught the industry by surprise and forced chip makers and fab equipment suppliers to take the technology more seriously. For example, foundries have increased 200mm capacity with new or improved processes. Then, several fab equipment suppliers began building new 200mm wafer fabrication equipment.
SEMI analyst ChristianGregorDieseldorff said that overall, the number of 200mm wafer fabs is expected to increase from 188 in 2016 to 202 by 2021. This figure includes IDM and foundries.
200mm wafer fab growth
Most of the new 200mm fabs under construction are in China. “At present, we are looking at four 200mm fabs under construction in China. The four wafers will be used for power devices and MEMS foundry,†Dieseldorff said. “In addition, China also announced that it will build two (MEMS and power ICs). The new 200mm wafer fab. We expect that the two fabs will start construction by the end of this year and will be completed by the end of next year."
A typical 200mm fab typically produces about 40,000 wafers per month. These factories will produce wafers at various process nodes from 6um to 65nm. "There are many products on the 180nm/130nm/110nm process node, depending on the needs of the application," said UMC's Ng. "RF devices, especially RFSOI, are driving a substantial increase in production capacity. Of course, power devices are also included, and Products like BCD (Bipolar-CMOS-DMOS)."
At 200mm wafer size, related applications are exploding. “We are seeing applications continue to expand,†said Mike Rosa, Director of Strategy and Technical Marketing for the 200mm Device Products Division of Applied Materials, Inc., “including electric vehicles and ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems), and the ever-increasing number of new smartphones. Features."
According to Rosa, “In the demand for these devices, the 200mm foundry utilization rate is between 85% and 95%, and there are some reports that it can reach 100%.â€
According to Joanne Itow, general manager of manufacturing at SemicoResearch, demand for 200mm wafers increased by 9.2% in 2017. According to Itow, "simulation, discrete devices, MCUs (micro-controllers), optoelectronics, and sensors all contribute to the growth in demand for 200mm wafers."
In 2018, the market is cooling to some extent. She said: "The increase in demand for 200mm wafers in 2018 will fall back to the historically normal level of 4.2%."
200mm Wafer Requirements by Product Category 2018
One of the reasons for the market to enter the cooling period is that the capacity of the fab is tight and manufacturers cannot expand. In addition, even if device manufacturers want to expand, they also need to face the problem of shortage of equipment.
Despite this, the production capacity of the 200mm wafer fab is expected to continue for some time, especially for foundries. Bami Bastani, senior vice president of RF business unit of GlobalFoundries, said: "The industry's 200mm wafer capacity has been over-rated. Many devices do not require very advanced process nodes."
For example, the most advanced chips are used in high-end smart phones, but that accounts for only a small part of its many devices. "The rest of the devices include PMICs (Power Management ICs), Analog Devices, and BCD-like technologies," Bastani said. "Most of these products do not require smaller process sizes. Until they reach the end of the product life cycle, customers are not Will easily give up."
In general, customers are happy to manufacture these devices at the lower cost 200mm foundry. However, the 200mm wafer capacity is not sufficient, and the profit is lower than 300mm wafers.
This brings some challenges to the foundry. First, suppliers must continue to invest and upgrade various 200mm processes. One example is the automotive industry. Even for 200mm wafers, customers still need to upgrade their processes. "The industry needs to constantly invest in new technologies. It seems we can't develop these technologies fast enough," said Mike Rosa of Applied Materials.
In addition to investing in new 200mm wafer processes, foundries must find ways to increase 200mm wafer capacity. Here are some options:
- Acquisition of a company with a 200mm wafer fab.
- Build a new 200mm fab.
- Increase 200mm wafer capacity.
- Transfer customers from 200mm wafers to 300mm wafers.
- Reconstruction of a 300mm fab.
Taking the acquisition route is one way. Over the years, the foundries have acquired related technologies and production capacity through acquisitions, but this is a higher cost option. "Any company that has a 200mm wafer fab and is considering selling it will take this transaction very seriously and try to demand a reasonable premium," said UMC's Ng.
Another option is to build a new 200mm fab. The challenge is to invest in manufacturing equipment and long-term operational returns. "If you plan to invest in more production, the question is whether it makes sense from a business point of view," Ng said. "A lot of applications are driving the growth of 200mm wafers. Cost is a very important part. You can support The increase in production capacity. However, if it is not cost-effective, it cannot meet the requirements."
In addition to the above approaches, many foundries chose to transfer some of their chips from 200mm wafers to 300mm wafers. This approach makes sense for some products, but not all products are suitable. “We are working hard to find a solution for 200mm wafer customers. If we take appropriate considerations, we believe that we will promote some of our customers' products to the 300mm wafer platform,†said Ng.
For some chips, there is no point in migrating them to 300mm wafers. "Many applications based on 200mm wafers are very sensitive to cost, so any changes will be a challenge," he said. "For example, some discrete power devices should never be transferred to the 300mm platform."
Well, there are so many problems with the 200mm wafer platform, and some manufacturers even begin to rethink their 200mm fab plan. They are even considering whether to build a 300mm fab, which is also a very expensive option. "If you are considering a 300mm wafer platform, then your cost investment will increase further," said Mike Rosa of AppliedMaterials. "That's even before you start thinking about the availability and readiness of the technology you may need. Start highlighting."
At the same time, the foundry's customers are also facing some challenges. In addition to ensuring that their suppliers have sufficient capabilities, customers must also evaluate the operation of the foundry. Each foundry is different and each foundry offers different manufacturing capabilities.
In addition, new vendors are constantly competing. Last year, SkyWater acquired a 200mm wafer fab at Cypress Semiconductor in Bloomington, Minnesota. Previously, Cypress's fab in Bloomington provided foundry services.
Through the acquisition of this fab, SkyWater began to provide foundry services, positioning it as a professional foundry using CMOS technology and biotechnology, silicon photonics, quantum computing and superconducting technology.
SkyWater has a 200mm fab that includes 0.35um, 90nm and other node processes. “If you look at some of the foundries, their output is high, but they don’t like customized services. Customizing services means that you have to pay a lot of costs. And depending on your size, they may not necessarily feel Interest," said SkyWater president Thomas Sonderman.
“We have the ability to develop in the context of mass production. One of the capabilities that Cypress had when it took control of this fab was to be able to complete the manufacture of multiple product combinations at lower volumes while still having World-class yield," said Sonderman. "With our model, we can provide our customers with a reasonable production scale at competitive prices. But our approach is to provide ASIC capabilities and technical expertise."
Urgent need: 200mm wafer equipment
At the same time, IDM and foundries are hoping to expand their 200mm capacity. Where can I buy 200mm devices?
Chip manufacturers can purchase used equipment from fab equipment manufacturers, used equipment companies, brokers, or through eBay and other online websites. Some chip makers also sell used equipment on the open market.
Recently, AppliedMaterials, ASML, KLA-Tencor, LamResearch, TEL and other equipment manufacturers have begun manufacturing new 200mm wafer devices.
According to data from second-hand equipment supplier SurplusGlobal, in early 2018, the industry needed about 2,000 units/set of new or refurbished 200mm machines to meet the fab's demand. According to SurplusGlobal, at the beginning of 2018, there were only 500 machines available on the market for 200mm wafer platforms.
“We still believe that this is true. We will still see that the equipment requirements for the 200mm platform cannot be met,†said Emerald Greig, executive vice president of Americas and Europe at SurplusGlobal. “Although we have seen demand in the United States and Europe, it is IDM. Manufacturers and China have caused the status of such equipment out of stock."
The difference in this cycle is that the demand for 200mm wafer equipment in the second half of 2018 does not seem to be certain. "Because of geopolitical factors, we saw a slight slowdown in demand in the second half of the year," Greig said. "Because of the reassessment of 200mm or 300mm equipment installations, we saw a short pause in market demand."
Others are more optimistic, "the market demand is very strong," said Rosa of AppliedMaterials. "On the 200mm wafer platform, we are expected to achieve the strongest year of market performance so far."
Regardless of short-term prospects, 200mm wafer platforms are expected to continue operating for a period of time, so fabs must purchase equipment and spare parts to meet demand. Buying 200mm equipment from suppliers is a major consideration - quality, reputation and service. Even then, buying equipment from OEMs, used equipment suppliers, or elsewhere is a challenge.
200mm wafer machine suppliers are not the same. Some of them provide new machines, while others provide refurbished existing machines. Even some companies sell systems that are substandard or simply not working.
"There are two main types of equipment requirements. One is purely increased capacity. If you only increase production capacity, it is relatively simple and straightforward," said Rosa. "There is another type of capacity that requires new technology support. This situation is used equipment. The market cannot be satisfied."
At the same time, the fab machine supplier AppliedMaterials is also manufacturing new 200mm equipment and refurbishing it in various market segments. Usually it is produced on an order basis and the delivery period varies from 12 weeks to 16 weeks.
In some cases, AppliedMaterials will build a new 200mm device from scratch. “This situation will increase the lead time and price,†he said. “We found that the average selling price of the equipment is approaching the price when AppliedMaterials only has 200mm equipment.â€
Of course, other manufacturers also see market growth in this area. "For the foreseeable future, we expect the business of 200mm equipment will continue to grow. Our planning period is 2030, and there are indications that this period may be further extended. This is why we continue to invest heavily in enabling technology, Increased productivity and outdated solutions, said Evan Patton, vice president of LamResearch and general manager of Reliant Products.
Although LamResearch is closely following the growth rate of orders, the demand for 200mm equipment is very strong. Patton said: "The used equipment market may be out of stock, but there is no shortage of 200mm equipment in LamResearch's product portfolio."
LamResearch is developing new and refurbished 200mm devices such as etching, deposition and cleaning machines. “We are investing in the development of new equipment to support advanced devices in the automotive, IoT and RF markets,†he said.
How long can the 200mm device boom continue to be a question mark? For now, business this year and next year looks good. “We think that for the equipment supplier and IDM in 2019, it will be another year of strong market performance. With IDM squeezing new equipment into their manufacturing plants, the fab's market space will become tighter. "Kevin Chasey, senior vice president and deputy general manager of TEL, said.
“TEL is launching OEE (Overall Equipment Efficiency) hardware and software upgrades to improve the infrastructure equipment that was installed in the past,†Chasey said. “In addition, TEL is re-launching upgraded equipment platforms to ensure that our customers will In the future, there will be complete and complete support equipment."
TEL offers a series of 200mm systems, such as deposition, etching, cleaning and Track machines. Many platforms can run 100mm/200mm wafer substrates at the same time.
Although the demand for 200mm wafer equipment looks robust, suppliers still need to pay close attention to situations that may affect the order rate. "Because 200mm wafers are expected to continue to grow to 2021, we expect the demand for 200mm wafer capacity will continue to grow in the coming years," said Ian O'Leary, Senior Director of Marketing, KLA-Tencor's mature services, systems and improvement department.
"Some demand drivers for the final 200mm wafers may gradually shift to 300mm wafers and cutting-edge advanced process nodes," O'Leary said. "One example is the rapidly growing demand for a wide range of automotive chips, covering the lower end To high-end applications For automotive chips, controlled by cost analysis, the transfer speed from 200mm wafers to 300mm wafers has been slow, but we will continue to pay close attention to these trends so that our business can keep up with the development of market demand. â€
However, automotive device manufacturers need 200mm wafer platforms, especially in defect detection. In the automotive sector, OEMs often require zero chip defects.
Typically, device manufacturers use wafer inspection equipment to detect defects. "In the automotive field, many of the 300mm wafer fabs need a machine model that is also needed in 200mm fabs," he said.
To find latent defects in the 110nm process, fabs typically require 65nm defect detection capabilities. Therefore, KLA-Tencor needed to build a 200mm wafer inspection device with 300mm wafer performance.
Obviously, the market's demand for 200mm wafers will continue. Many chips require a mature process in a 200mm factory for a long period of time. However, it remains to be seen whether the industry can gain support from the supply chain.
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