ã€Trade wars cease, China's manufacturing industry must learn from it! ] Tackling battles, setting up artillery, putting two shots, and then mobilizing money, this is the Sino-U.S. trade war that has frightened political and business circles. It started dramatically with the signing of a memorandum by Trump, and then ended dramatically in a framework agreement announced by the US Treasury Secretary Mr. Munuchin. The role of China is probably what I should do with you. You cannot ignore it. So this epic level trade war just came to an end.
Recalling Sino-US trade war
In fact, the Sino-U.S. trade war has already appeared. On August 18, 2017, the U.S. government issued a statement announcing an investigation into China under section 301 of the Trade Protection Act to determine whether China’s laws or policies related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation are discriminatory against U.S. companies. The U.S.’s extremely intensive unilateralism trade investigation has triggered concerns from all walks of life about Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations.
On March 1, 2018, the U.S. government announced that it will impose heavy taxes of 25% and 10% on imports of steel and aluminum for a long period of time. However, the subsequent exemption from allies may eventually be imposed on high tariffs "only China." However, everyone is still more willing to set the beginning of this trade station as a memorandum signed by Trump on March 23, announcing that it will take measures to impose tariffs on Chinese products and restricting China’s M&A in the United States. Tax-related Chinese products The scale of up to thousands of species, worth about 60 billion US dollars. Because, this time it is not an investigation, not a scope attack, but the direct bill is open to China.
According to the ancients, "To come and go without courtesy." For the US's 301 investigation list, the Chinese side quickly announced the list of counterfeited goods in less than 12 hours. The actual total amount is approximately US$ 48 billion. In this list, it is awesomely aimed at the US soybean and aircraft industries. If both sides are standing on the ring, the American jab is hurt and China's backhand is not light.
In the Sino-U.S. government hard-line announcement, Huawei and ZTE were interspersed with "victims" that were hotly debated by the Chinese people. Huawei has always been cautious, but it has not given the U.S. government a handle. ZTE has become a "chip" on the countertop, and ZTE has been able to rise and fall in this wave of trade war.
On April 16, 2018, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it would ban US companies from selling components, goods, software, and technology to ZTE over the next seven years, causing ZTE to fall into a state of paralysis. After several rounds of tongue-in-cheek swords, on May 13th, US President Trump issued a tweet saying that President Xi and I are providing China ZTE with a way to quickly resume business. (Because of the Zhongxing incident) China has had too many job losses. I have told the Ministry of Commerce to complete this work as soon as possible.
Americans are guilty of a trade deficit
The United States has repeatedly tested China's bottom line nothing more than to eliminate the trade deficit between China and the United States. After 2000, China became the largest trade deficit country in the United States. In 2003, after China's accession to the WTO, the process of industrialization went further and the trade deficit between the United States and China further expanded.
For this reason, in September 2003, the US Treasury Secretary Snow visited China and put forward the idea of ​​the appreciation of the renminbi, which was refuted by the then Premier Wen Jiabao. However, the EU also expressed the same intention afterwards. On September 13, 2003, the European Central Bank President Deisenbehe said after meeting with European finance ministers on September 13 that the advantages of the fixed exchange rate system linked to the US dollar imposed by some Asian countries gave the euro a There was an undue burden.
Driven by a series of statements and bills, China has slowly appreciated the renminbi, adjusting the dollar against the renminbi at 1:8.11. Since then, the gradual appreciation of the renminbi in 2008 reached a dollar exchange rate of 6.83 yuan. The pace of appreciation of the renminbi is far behind the pace of development of China's manufacturing industry. Therefore, the trade deficit between China and the United States has existed so far, which has contributed to this untried trade war.
Clean the battlefield without war
Both China and the United States are major trading nations and are important strategic partners of both parties. Therefore, the ceasefire is the result of everyone's interest. This trade war ended with China's active import as a "cost", rather than requiring China to reduce its exports. The difference in this trade can be described as "a world of difference" for domestic companies, especially large domestic companies. Then, let's take a closer look at what China and the United States have achieved in the trade war.
Let's look at the United States first.
We just mentioned that this trade war ended on the premise that China will increase its imports from the United States. Then American industry, especially the technology industry, will receive full benefits. Looking back at the trade war, the skyrocketing momentum of U.S. technology stocks was slammed and continued for three weeks. The second-quarter trading closed on the first day of trading. The S&P 500 index hit a new low since February of this year and fell below the 200-day moving average. This is the first time since June 2016 that companies and investors have been timid in such a tense situation in the trade war.
According to relevant statistics, from 2001 to 2016, U.S. trade exports to China increased 500 times, while trade growth in other parts of the world was only 90% during the same period. The figures clearly and clearly told the U.S. government that the Chinese market is too important for U.S. companies. Now, the United States cannot lose the world's largest market, or the consequences will be disastrous. China has 20% of the world's population, but only 11% of the arable land. China cannot self-sufficient, so it must import to make up for the shortfall. Take soybeans as an example. China imports 50% and 30% of soybeans from Brazil and the United States each year. China is the largest customer of US soybeans.
Focusing on the electronics industry, the United States is the largest producer of semiconductor components, and China is the largest importer of semiconductor components. Effective production can effectively promote the healthy development of the market. Taking Qualcomm as an example, the news of the opening of the Sino-US trade war has made it difficult for its business to perform, and a series of self-rescue moves such as adjusting business expectations, layoffs and the like have frequently been staged.
According to an unnamed source quoted by the British Financial Times (FT), China proposed that some semiconductors purchased from South Korea and China Taiwan be turned to US procurement to reduce the trade surplus between China and the United States.
Then we look at China.
The cease-fire of the trade war will allow China's supply-side reforms to proceed smoothly, allowing the market to further deepen the benefits of resources that play a decisive role. In the long run, increasing competitive products will bring about the vitality of long-term economic development, help promote fair competition in economic activities, increase the cod effect, and achieve survival of the fittest.
The trade war has given a warning to the Chinese manufacturing industry. The ceasefire of the trade war has given the Chinese manufacturing industry an opportunity. The development of Chinese chips requires the promotion and benign competition of American products. It is as dangerous as “closing the door behind closed doors†and “closing the customsâ€. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, by the end of October 2017, the import amount of integrated circuits in China had reached 207.197 billion U.S. dollars, up 14.5% year-on-year. In the same period, China's crude oil imports amounted to 131.501 billion U.S. dollars, and China's chip imports were 1.57 times that of crude oil imports. However, the recent hot term “China Core†must be step by step if it wants to be competitive. If the United States cuts supply of chips to China and the current Chinese chip industry does not save any well-known enterprise, ZTE is the best. example.
China has also obtained a respite from the improvement of intellectual property rights. The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) announced on March 21st the statistics of 2017 global enterprises applying for registration of international patents. Judging from the number of applications from various countries, China increased 13.4% from the previous year to 48,882, which surpassed 48,208 in Japan and rose to second place. The number of U.S. nations that occupy the top is 56,624. If the trade war is started, it will be difficult for enterprises to survive, but also how to innovate research and development. Further opening the door to the country will also allow Chinese patent quality and world standards to be connected, enhance their own strengths, and get rid of patents rather than refinement. According to the "2012 Annual Report on China's Effective Patents," it shows that the proportion of invention patents with high levels of Chinese invention and high technological content in 2012 was only 15.7%.
China’s increase in energy imports from the United States is mutually beneficial to both China and the United States, and it is also a microcosm of the reluctance of the markets after their respective opening up. For China, if the price is only 1/6 of the East Asian price of natural gas introduced, the market will reshuffle. For the United States, opening up energy controls for many years, money and power must eventually be abandoned.
Xiao Bian believes that the significance of the ceasefire in the trade war between China and the United States is no less important than China’s accession to the WTO. One is to let China’s national doors open, and the other is to let China’s national doors open further. This time, the "Zhongxing Sanctions" incident in the Sino-U.S. trade war has given rise to awakenings made by China. It is a good thing to expose weaknesses and break the "ignorance" of "doing better than buying." China's manufacturing industry will be stronger. Although the trade war between the two sides has not been started, China must not relax its vigilance. The "queriness" of the Trump administration's "tweet" diplomacy has already emerged in response to the Iranian incident. The recurrence of the trade war must always be tight.
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