ã€Automatic driving technology accidents continue one after another, and it is imperative that we maintain stability and stability to get public goodwill.†It has been more than a month since Uber’s auto-driving car’s fatal incident. The fatal accident and its uncertain consequences reflect the dilemma of a new industry: the technology of self-driving cars, which vows to liberate human travel, alleviate traffic congestion and save lives, is facing an unprecedented examination.
Although Uber has suspended vehicle testing indefinitely, other manufacturers may not stop and wait for it. Industry leader Waymo has maintained the original plan to launch a self-driving taxi service this year. GM, which paid a large sum of money to catch up, set the on-line time for automatic taxi service to next year. However, these arrogant manufacturers may encounter an embarrassing situation in the future, that is, they have not experienced the eyes of the public.
In other words, it is difficult for autopilots to cross a technical threshold, but they are stumped by the public's psychological threshold when they are about to learn to go out. And don't forget that the public, politicians, and regulators are stakeholders in this industry. If auto-driving cars want to change the world and complete large-scale deployments, they must get their support, or they won't be able to move.
Nowadays, the self-driving companies have already expressed some poor words when defending themselves. They simply list some bloody numbers to highlight their importance. For example, 40,000 people in the United States die each year due to traffic accidents, and the number is up to 125 worldwide. Tens of thousands of people are seriously injured at the same time. In contrast, letting robots drive cars is much safer, they won't fatigue, they won't get distracted, they won't get drunk.
These figures are indeed eye-catching and persuasive, but they have nothing to do with ordinary drivers. Road safety is a major social issue. However, ordinary people may not be able to feel the urgency of the problem personally.
For modern people, driving a car is almost a must-have skill. There are very few people who fear driving and no one will feel an accident. At the same time, accidents have become commonplace. For many people, as long as they do not happen to themselves, the accident is background noise.
In addition, if you want to reduce the number of casualties in millions of traffic accidents each year, I am afraid it will take several decades. After all, global car ownership is more than 1 billion units. It is not an overnight move to replace them all.
Therefore, after two consecutive fatal accidents (along with a Tesla ModelX), the autopilot industry is in desperate need of a victory and a new script.
“Those who are so arrogant and desperate that they want to accomplish their work in one battle must have a high failure rate,†said Timothy Carone, professor of Notre Dame de Paris, author of "Future Automation: Changes in Life and Business." "The key reason why project managers have lost the support of stakeholders is that they have failed to see the benefits of the project."
Rather than instilling in the public the notion that self-driving cars can save millions of lives, developers in Silicon Valley, Detroit, and elsewhere should have evidence that proves the technical value is straightforward and practical.
Certainly someone would say that Waymo's fleet of self-driving taxis is evidence. However, Carone thinks, "What the Waymo team can prove is that their cars can perform in Phoenix. They still can't show their value."
It's important to get goodwill from the public
Even if Waymo's services make the road safer, it is hard for the public to realize how different Waymo and Uber are. Most people will be scared by Uber’s fatal accident. We can even say that this accident has affected the entire autopilot. Industry reputation.
Therefore, Waymo is not only a high-tech taxi, but also a solution that is not continuous but obvious. Take the growing problem of drunk driving for young people, why not provide free taxi services for young people aged 16-25 from 10pm to 2 midnight? In this way, parents can be assured that they will be able to comfortably and safely return home even if their children are drunk. In providing this service, manufacturers can also collect a lot of positive data.
Of course, all major autonomous companies also have a clear path, which is to provide shuttle service to suburban towns and take them back home from the local train or subway station. This program can solve the last kilometer that has been plaguing everyone, especially for those who have no cars at home. As long as the service is good enough, it will surely attract residents of neighboring towns to try.
“If the vendor has a clear goal and can resonate with the user or stakeholder, there is no need to worry about it,†Stephanos Zenios spoke at Stanford. "It must solve the practical problems that plague certain companies."
The small-scale automatic driving shuttle that MayMobility is testing is a smart solution to the problem of traveling in the city center. However, they travel only 25 miles per hour and are unable to overtake and change lanes as often as human drivers.
So why not change our minds and provide them with bus lanes or other incentives to save passengers time? Even if passengers can save 10 minutes each time they travel, they will remember that this new technology is good, so that the popularity of the future will be backed up.
Staying steadily and learning from SpaceX
Carone also cited SpaceX as an example. The company of Silicon Valley Iron Man used a steady, step-by-step approach when developing the Falcon Series rockets. They also won support through this method. At the beginning of the company's establishment, they did fail frequently, but when they were successful, they entered the state and began to flow smoothly (including launching and recycling).
Now SpaceX has 100 waiting orders for launch. Obviously, customers have already trusted the ability of Mask. Of course, in addition to the high success rate, SpaceX has its own magic - low cost, which is also a big problem that has plagued users. After solving these two major problems at once, even if there is a "discordant episode" in the middle, the customer will still choose to hand over the launch contract to SpaceX.
Uber is also a step by step to become the current super unicorn. This taxi application was just born in 2009 for users to rent a variety of luxury cars. But then it evolved into an end-to-end service that became a candidate for users who lacked public transport and expensive taxis. During the growth phase, Uber has also joined the subdivision function for groups such as large groups, children, pets passengers, and disabled people. As a result, when the City of London threatened to revoke the Uber license, more than 850,000 people came out to speak for Uber. It seems that the taxi giant has really gained popular support in London. If there is such a reputation in autopilot service, I am afraid that a fatal accident will not affect Uber's footsteps.
The same applies to vendors such as Tesla that offer semi-automated driving systems. Not long ago, a model X with Autopilot turned on hit the barrier, causing the driver to die. Tesla wrote a blog post and responded that “If you drive a Tesla equipped with Autopilot hardware, then the probability of being involved in a car accident is 3.7 times lower.†At the same time, the article also pointed out that ordinary vehicles A fatal accident occurred on average of 86 million miles per trip, and Tesla with Autopilot could increase the mileage to 320 million miles.
These figures are indeed impressive, but it is not easy to grasp them. After all, one person may not be able to drive one million miles in a lifetime. Therefore, 86 million miles and 320 million miles can only be regarded as dry numbers on paper. Tesla is not as good as directly giving a conspicuous percentage, at least it makes people more interested in spending $ 5,000 to install the system.
Even if it does not save you at a critical moment, it will allow you to avoid some small bumps and save a lot of time and insurance. "If you can carry out this plan, you can really tell the policy makers through a variety of data that they have chosen the right path and saved 50 or 100 precious lives a year," Carone said.
Researchers at the University of California, Irvine College, also pointed out that, like a crash, some people who like to exaggerate can perceive the risks of self-driving cars. If you want to change this part of people's minds, it's simply not possible to rely on a few promises and empty numbers. You have to step by step to make them feel the benefits of technological progress. This is the ultimate solution.
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