Wind power fell out of favor for five years

The concept of new energy that was once favored by the capital market has now been “abandoned” by investors.

The same is the giant of wind power equipment. In 2007, the price of gold wind technology listed on the first day rose 250%, creating the “myth” concept of wind power. Three years later, Goldwind’s competitors, the later Sinovel’s wind power, suffered a break at the beginning of the year on the first day of the listing, plunging 9.59%.

Shi Lishan, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration, stated that “Wind power generation is unstable and cannot be used as the main support force of the power grid. It can only participate in the peak adjustment of the power grid properly.”

In January 2011, the China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association's Renewable Energy Professional Committee and the International Environmental Protection Organization Greenpeace jointly issued the “China Wind Power Development Report 2010.” From 2005 to 2010, domestic wind power installations experienced a doubling growth for five years. As of the end of 2010, China’s wind power installed capacity surpassed the United States by 41.83 million kilowatts to become the world's largest wind power country.

While the installed capacity is increasing rapidly, the domestic wind power price has dropped by more than 1 yuan per degree from 5 yuan. At the same time, due to the delay in the construction of the power grid, it is unable to withstand such large installed capacity. Wind farms in Inner Mongolia and other places have begun to appear The phenomenon, that is to say, the power generated by the wind turbine is wasted because it cannot enter the power grid.

In the face of a new round of government plans to develop renewable energy, wind power also seems to be no longer the first choice.

In the past five years, how did wind power change from "darling" to "disposal"?

Policy Support Gives Birth to Power Enterprises

"Every year during the two sessions, leaders of power companies meet with leaders of all provinces are the highlights, and the search for new energy development cooperation is almost always the focus of conversation." A researcher revealed. With the support of multiple policies, the five major power generation groups have rushed around at no cost.

"The development of China's wind power market is mainly supported by policies." The overview of a well-known domestic fund manager is not an exaggeration.

In 2005, the "Renewable Energy Law" was formally promulgated, and it was clearly stated in the form of laws that the country will implement the full-scale guaranteed purchase system for renewable energy. This gives investors confidence.

The "Mid-term and long-term plan for renewable energy" promulgated in 2007 clearly stipulates that the installed capacity of non-hydro renewable energy generated by investors with a total installed capacity of more than 5 million kilowatts of rights and interests should be accounted for by 2010 and 2020, respectively. More than 3% and 8% or more.

In China, more than 5 million kilowatts of investors are mostly state-owned enterprises and local large-scale power generation groups, which means that it is a task for major power generation groups to develop wind power generation.

With the support of multiple policies, the development of wind power in China has entered a fast track. The top five power generation companies, which account for 60% of the domestic power generation market, have begun to rush around to build wind farms. Local governments also incorporated wind power development into local economic development strategies. Including Jiuquan in Gansu Province, there are already seven million-dollar wind power bases in the country and both are planning to build them into the “Three Gorges on the land”.

Although at the beginning of wind power development, the cost was relatively high and the price of wind power was relatively high, in order to obtain wind power resources, many companies still managed to make projects at a loss. A senior power researcher stated that “the time to get the project to fight is actually the company’s ability to resist losses.”

He explained that during the two sessions of the year, the leaders of electric power companies meet with the leaders of all provinces are the highlights, and the search for new energy development cooperation is almost always the focus of conversation. There have been media reports that in a northern province, a company had already signed a wind power project agreement with the local government to determine the development area. It did not happen that the province directly arranged a larger central enterprise, so the company’s project was abandoned. The previous agreement was also equivalent to a piece of waste paper.

At the beginning of the 2011 New Year, 20 energy-producing projects in Shandong Province were approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, and 16 were new energy projects. Of these, 12 were wind power projects, and Huaneng, Guodian, Datang, and China Resources Power were all listed.

In fact, such enclosure operations continued to be staged and began to spread to the sea. In the tender for the first round of domestic offshore wind power concession project in September 2010, a number of central-level power companies reported ultra-low prices that attracted the attention of the industry. The central state-owned China Power Investment Group has twice invested the lowest price of 0.6101 yuan/kWh, which is not only close to the price of land-based wind power in China, but also lower than the peak price of thermal power in some areas. This price is generally considered to be destined for losses because the industry generally expects offshore wind power to maintain a price of approximately 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour.

Wind power concept "out of favor" capital market

Just as China became the world's leading wind power, problems have also emerged. For a time, the wind power seems to have been “lost favor”. The problem of wind power grid integration becomes more and more prominent, and the policy's blessing power seems to have begun to lapse. The capital market is no longer optimistic about this new energy concept.

On December 26, 2007, wind power equipment manufacturer Goldwind Technology opened the market on the first day of A-shares at a price of 138 yuan and closed at a price of 131 yuan. Compared with the issue price of 36 yuan, it rose more than 250 yuan on the day of listing. %. However, the wind power equipment giant, and the later China Huarui Wind Power Co., Ltd. set a price of 90 yuan to set the most expensive IPO record, but it broke on the first day of trading on January 13, 2011, with a drop of 9.59%.

For three years, the capital market seems to have lost patience with the concept of wind power. A fund manager said, "The domestic wind power has experienced a period of rapid development, and the issue of wind power access to the Internet has not been resolved, and profitability is now mainly dependent on government subsidies."

The issue of wind power internet access is indeed a bottleneck for the development of the industry. In 2008, a statistical data showed that one third of the domestic wind turbines were idle. That is to say, because the power grid company's grid transmission construction lags behind the construction of power plants, some wind power plants cannot send power to the power grid after they are installed. As a result, power generation companies cannot achieve effective power generation and thus achieve profitability.

The Supervisory Regulatory Commission had previously pointed out that the lack of support for grid construction and wind farm construction is an important reason why the grid connection problem cannot be solved. Power grid companies have also stated that the enthusiasm of power generation companies and local governments for the development of wind power is too high and they do not take into account local power grid construction plans. But in fact, the current power grid construction is invested by the power grid companies, and the construction of wind farms is built by power generation companies. In the enthusiasm of building wind farms, the enthusiasm of power generation companies and local governments is not synchronized with those of grid companies.

An expert from the grid company stated that the operation of wind power is not stable and cannot be used as the main supporting force of the power grid. Therefore, wind power of the same size must also be equipped with considerable firepower or hydropower resources. In other words, solving the problem of wind power online is not an overnight task. Things can be done without the power grid.

It is not only A-share investors that have lost confidence in wind power. At the end of 2009, Longyuan Power Group, a subsidiary of the Guodian Group, was listed in Hong Kong with the title of Asia's largest wind power producer and raised 17.136 billion yuan at an issue price of HK$8.16 per share. Driven by Longyuan Wind Power, the other two central SOEs, Huaneng Group and Datang Group’s new energy companies, planned to visit Hong Kong at the end of last year. However, due to the downturn in the market, Huaneng Group eventually gave up its scheduled listing in Hong Kong. Although the new Datang New Energy was listed on schedule, it was broken on the first day of listing.

Even if Longyuan Power executive director and general manager Xie Changjun expressed that the company’s profit will double in 2010, the capital market is no longer like wind power.

A well-known domestic fund manager said, “Wind power seems to be very profitable, but since the listing of Longyuan Wind Power, few fund managers have made money on this stock, hurting the hearts of many fund managers.” As of 2011 1 On January 28, Longyuan Power Hong Kong stock closed at HK$7.02. Its stock price fell 14% in the past year.

analysis

Policy change tone wind power into the leap year?

In addition to the problem of grid connection, after five years of growth, whether wind power continues to grow rapidly and wind power policies in the country seem to have changed.

In a recent interview with the reporter, Shi Lishan, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration, said: “Compared with wind power and solar power, we are still faced with the issue of access to the Internet, and biomass power generation also needs to address issues such as raw material collection. The hydropower development already has a complete system, and hydropower has the conditions to speed up construction."

During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's annual hydropower installed capacity will reach 20 million kilowatts.

Does this mean that wind power has entered the leap year?

Shi Lishan said: “Wind power is unstable and cannot be used as the main support force of the power grid. It can only participate in the peak adjustment of the power grid properly.” This shows that wind power can only act as a supporting role in the power grid.

The current consensus is that the cost of electricity generated by hydropower and nuclear power is significantly better than that of wind power, and the operation of hydropower and nuclear power is stable.

A research report by Credit Suisse in December last year showed that in the five types of power supply structure including domestic wind power, thermal power, hydropower, natural gas, and nuclear power, the total power generation cost is 418 yuan/MWh and 354 yuan/MWh respectively. At 296 yuan/MWh, 616 yuan/MWh, and 220 yuan/MWh, the cost advantages of hydropower and nuclear power are obvious.

However, Qin Haiyan, secretary general of the Wind Energy Committee of the China Renewable Energy Association, is still optimistic about the development of wind power. He believes that the commitment of the Chinese government to account for 15% of primary energy consumption by non-fossil energy by 2020 means that the installed capacity of wind power will be reached by 2020. The capacity should reach about 200 million kilowatts.

With the current domestic wind power installed capacity only 40 million kilowatts in the beginning, in the next ten years, the average annual installed capacity of wind power should be able to reach about 20 million kilowatts. However, even with the new installed capacity of 20 million kilowatts in 2011, the growth rate of wind power installed capacity in 2011 is only about 50%. In the future, as the base increases, the growth rate will also decrease.

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